Egypt: An Early Thought Re-Thought

1/28/2011 2:01:12 P.M. Eastern Standard Time

"Egypt could now change the balance in the Mid-East to our disadvantage. Yemen and Jordan are also beginning to feel the internal pressures. We need a strong, non-sectarian Egypt as an ally. Liberty and Freedom are assuredly objectives we should foster but once that opening is created in an oppressive regime anarchy can be the immediate state of conditions. The population will then look to or fall to existing or dynamic leadership for direction. Muslim extremists now in Egyptian prisons (progeny of the "Brotherhood" that was the doctrinal foundation of al Qaeda) as "enemies of the state" and their followers may readily fill that leadership vacuum with the masses already committed to Islam. The same alternative would exist in Yemen and Jordan. Saudi Arabia would hastily crush any opposition to its strong Islamist establishment.

"One approach would be for the US to take affirmative, clandestine actions to either guide Mubarak to enlightened yet firm leadership with appropriate concessions to the people now in the streets (something we should have been doing over the last 30 years). Should the opposition in the streets continue to grow, using existing assets, we might support and guide a coup displacing Mubarak with, if not "friends" then at least a faction not Muslim extremist."

Upon further reflection it would seem grossly irresponsible to "guide" Egyptian military, politicians or others toward a coup d'etat. Given the sieve that purports to be our control of sensitive information, there should be no reasonable confidence in our being able to plausibly deny the actuality or appearance of control. The existing, direct, personal relationships at the higher levels of our militaries should provide the opportunity for highly selective "private" discussions. With Egypt's high command officers having just spent several days in Washington, DC the accusations of conspiracy may be unavoidable.

I suspect that with whatever may be happening on the streets across the Middle-East, there are groups, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in particular, now behind the scenes seeing the opportunity and moving toward the reinstatement of the caliphate. The impact earlier in Tunisia and now across the Middle-East of the Al Jazeera network is interesting not the least because of the Saudi control of the Arab press. Saudi Arabia having granted an asylum to the Tunisian President and with a history of association with Mubarak can be expected to act within its own substantial national interests. The Saudi regime will probably work to re-stabilize what has been the balance - probably. Yet, even the now relatively silent, yet influential (and rich), Saudi ruling family members may set aside doctrinal differences with the Brotherhood and other factions for strategic Islamic advantage and continuing Saudi influence. Israel, while staying alert and ready, should stand quietly and halt any overt, provocative conduct (actual or perceivable) toward Palestinians and its own adjacent neighbors. In fact, Israel should keep its many mouths silent.