Egypt: An Early Thought Re-Thought

1/28/2011 2:01:12 P.M. Eastern Standard Time

"Egypt could now change the balance in the Mid-East to our disadvantage. Yemen and Jordan are also beginning to feel the internal pressures. We need a strong, non-sectarian Egypt as an ally. Liberty and Freedom are assuredly objectives we should foster but once that opening is created in an oppressive regime anarchy can be the immediate state of conditions. The population will then look to or fall to existing or dynamic leadership for direction. Muslim extremists now in Egyptian prisons (progeny of the "Brotherhood" that was the doctrinal foundation of al Qaeda) as "enemies of the state" and their followers may readily fill that leadership vacuum with the masses already committed to Islam. The same alternative would exist in Yemen and Jordan. Saudi Arabia would hastily crush any opposition to its strong Islamist establishment.

"One approach would be for the US to take affirmative, clandestine actions to either guide Mubarak to enlightened yet firm leadership with appropriate concessions to the people now in the streets (something we should have been doing over the last 30 years). Should the opposition in the streets continue to grow, using existing assets, we might support and guide a coup displacing Mubarak with, if not "friends" then at least a faction not Muslim extremist."

Upon further reflection it would seem grossly irresponsible to "guide" Egyptian military, politicians or others toward a coup d'etat. Given the sieve that purports to be our control of sensitive information, there should be no reasonable confidence in our being able to plausibly deny the actuality or appearance of control. The existing, direct, personal relationships at the higher levels of our militaries should provide the opportunity for highly selective "private" discussions. With Egypt's high command officers having just spent several days in Washington, DC the accusations of conspiracy may be unavoidable.

I suspect that with whatever may be happening on the streets across the Middle-East, there are groups, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in particular, now behind the scenes seeing the opportunity and moving toward the reinstatement of the caliphate. The impact earlier in Tunisia and now across the Middle-East of the Al Jazeera network is interesting not the least because of the Saudi control of the Arab press. Saudi Arabia having granted an asylum to the Tunisian President and with a history of association with Mubarak can be expected to act within its own substantial national interests. The Saudi regime will probably work to re-stabilize what has been the balance - probably. Yet, even the now relatively silent, yet influential (and rich), Saudi ruling family members may set aside doctrinal differences with the Brotherhood and other factions for strategic Islamic advantage and continuing Saudi influence. Israel, while staying alert and ready, should stand quietly and halt any overt, provocative conduct (actual or perceivable) toward Palestinians and its own adjacent neighbors. In fact, Israel should keep its many mouths silent.

It's Only a Game

It was the Bears. It was the Packers. It was Soldier Field. It was bitter cold. It was professional football and it was Chicago. There remain memories of men playing their game while pained, blooded and broken. There are memories of men determined not to fail or abandon their teammates. Now sits the image of Jay Cutler.

Vigorous, Honorable, Political Rhetoric

It would seem to me that, rather than attempting to defend the indefensible, the political leaders from Right and Left might best serve the Nation (and their individual political parties) by ignoring all in the past and publish a joint manifesto for political discourse in the future - at least through 2012. Although in my view the Right has been the far greater transgressor, by foregoing the opportunity to spank (non-violently) the bottoms of the Becks, Cantors and Limbaughs, the Left will better serve the political system and the country by moving on. This is viable only if elected leadership of the Right and the Left make a concerted move toward an agreement on civility and both act with self discipline, leadership and integrity (Wow, will that be a tough one!).

Whatever the evidence will show as to the probability of the Arizona shooter's specific motive, sanity and motivation, it would be a travesty if we as a Nation were to be talked into ignoring this opportunity to demand civility and cooperation within the political structures at all levels of government now that the political leaders have our attention.

Arizona Shootings and Responsibility

In mid-year 2009 I responded to a comment in a discussion forum:

"The threat I addressed in an earlier message which I think you are answering was not that of “Republican wingnuts.” The threat is that some wingnut, whether Republican, Anglican or resident Vulcan, will see in the unconstrained rhetoric “of the Right” a justification, license or opportunity for individual notoriety in violent conduct. The Republican Party holds itself out as the party of the conservative right and is, in fact, the party in opposition to the present administration. Since it asserts itself in those capacities I believe it assumes a responsibility to do whatever possible to bring the opposition rhetoric within reasoned constraint or, at least, disassociate itself from any inference of or potential for violent acts."

The Republican Party leadership chose, for its own political ambitions, to allow and at times encourage vitriolic rhetoric against the President and his policies. Commentary reacting now to events in Arizona is far too little, far too late and suspect now that the foundations of violent intolerance have been established.